Looks like Novo is hurting

[Tbagger]

Novo’s stock is falling while its profits and projected growth tank.

It turns out orforglipron isn’t as effective as hoped. Combined with the fact Tirz is more effective and that they can’t stop the flood of grey market and compounded Sema, they are bleeding money. I won’t be shedding any tears if those greedy bastards go under.

The Creator of Ozempic Is in Terrible Trouble

Ozempic manufacturer Novo Nordisk slashed its sales forecast and saw its value plunge by nearly $100 billion.

futurism.com

 

[Grogu]

Yeah, although this is a fairly dated article from last summer, it doesn’t look like things have changed much for NN since then. I think the bigger issue for NN than compounding is that their products are less effective than Lilly’s. I read that NN is more like an insulin manufacturer that dabbles in medications, and that EL has far superior operations, development, and manufacturing capabilities.

 

[Tbagger]

Yeah, although this is a fairly dated article from last summer, it doesn’t look like things have changed much for NN since then

Oh crap, I didn't even look at the date lol. It just popped up on my FB feed.

 

[Grogu]

Oh crap, I didn't even look at the date lol. It just popped up on my FB feed.

Happens to me all the time too! I read stuff that pops up on my feeds and I’m thinking it’s new news.

 

[woundcarping]

Yeah, although this is a fairly dated article from last summer, it doesn’t look like things have changed much for NN since then. I think the bigger issue for NN than compounding is that their products are less effective than Lilly’s. I read that NN is more like an insulin manufacturer that dabbles in medications, and that EL has far superior operations, development, and manufacturing capabilities.

View attachment 19585

Ironically, EL was the original modern insulin manufacturer.

 

[UpDownLeftRightAS*]

Novo’s stock is falling while its profits and projected growth tank.

It turns out orforglipron isn’t as effective as hoped. Combined with the fact Tirz is more effective and that they can’t stop the flood of grey market and compounded Sema, they are bleeding money. I won’t be shedding any tears if those greedy bastards go under.

The Creator of Ozempic Is in Terrible Trouble

Ozempic manufacturer Novo Nordisk slashed its sales forecast and saw its value plunge by nearly $100 billion.

futurism.com

The orals are still and interesting pursuit, I think 10-15 are in pipeline and only a few of those will shake out. Conveglipron seemed interesting. Revisiting this in 24 months will be such a completely different story --new research/ discovery/ therapies

​[archived internal link]

 

[Turbo-Farmer]

Ironically, EL was the original modern insulin manufacturer.

EL bought the process from Genentech, who developed the first synthetic insulin product which was manufactured using recombinant DNA inserted into e.coli and fermented.

I worked for Genentech (2007) when one of my coworkers was stealing HGH from the clinical production line and selling it at his brother’s bodybuilding store. At the time it was one of the largest bust of the sales of steroids.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2007/09...man-growth-hormone-sold-it-in-san-jose-store/

 

[Calm Logic]

Novo’s stock is falling while its profits and projected growth tank.

It turns out orforglipron isn’t as effective as hoped. Combined with the fact Tirz is more effective and that they can’t stop the flood of grey market and compounded Sema, they are bleeding money. I won’t be shedding any tears if those greedy bastards go under.

CagriSema may help things if/when released next year, but Eli Lilly's reta may out next year too:

Feature CagriSema Retatrutide Primary Mechanism Satiety & Slow Digestion Satiety & Energy Expenditure Est. Weight Loss ~23% ~25%+ Nausea Risk High (due to dual gastric slowing) Moderate to High (during titration) Heart Rate Impact Neutral Mild Increase (Glucagon effect) Liver Health Good Excellent (Best-in-class fat clearance) Target Release 2027 2027

From the article you posted regarding orfo, which is by Eli Lilly:

Also haunting Novo is Lilly’s terribly-named weight loss pill , orforglipron, which a trial released in April showed was roughly as effective as Ozempic, upending expectations that an oral drug would fall short of an injectable. It’s yet to hit the market, but a weight loss pill would almost certainly rake in tons of more sales, being far more convenient than an injection. They would also, in theory, be cheaper to produce.

But the latest trial from Eli Lilly, released Thursday, brought those expectations back down to Earth. It showed that Lilly’s pill helped patients lose slightly less weight than analysts were expecting and put it more on par with Novo’s existing pill, Rybelsus. And the side effects are worrying: nearly a quarter of patients on the highest dose dropped out of Lilly’s study, Jared Holz, a health-care strategist at Mizuho Securities, told Bloomberg . It was a rare reprieve for Novo; shares climbed by over six percent on Thursday morning following the news, though overall its stock price is down nearly 60 percent over the past year.

For its part, Novo has slashed its drug prices this year and launched a direct-to-consumer online pharmacy to recoup sales lost to rivals and compounders, but it hasn’t staunched the bleeding. Overall, Novo’s sales of its semaglutide drugs grew by eight percent year on year in the first half, a steep drop from 21 percent last year.

 

[m100568]

Do you want the weight loss drug that is less effective and causes more side effects? I think that is the question most people are asking themselves. EL has a lock on the market for the next couple of years. They are positioned well with Tirz, Reta and Eloralintide either alone or in combination with Tirz. Beyond 2 years, who knows. It is a gold rush and everyone wants to get in on the bonanza. Once a month convenience alternatives are coming. Tirz-like competitors that perform better are coming. Reta competitors are coming. Combinations that preserve muscle are coming.

We are in a weird market situation of a duopoly right now and EL is coming out ahead. That will change. I expect that the competition will drive down prices and doctors will have many choices that they can tailor to the patient's needs in the future. I strongly feel that in 5 years we will look back at this period and shake our heads in disbelief that we lived through this duopoly stranglehold on the market.

In the meantime, EL is milking it for everything they can get. The only thing that NN can do to compete is drop their price, and they seem reluctant to do that.

 

[BNLFL]

Yeah, although this is a fairly dated article from last summer, it doesn’t look like things have changed much for NN since then. I think the bigger issue for NN than compounding is that their products are less effective than Lilly’s. I read that NN is more like an insulin manufacturer that dabbles in medications, and that EL has far superior operations, development, and manufacturing capabilities.

View attachment 19585

Take a peak at Lilly stock. I was going to be buyer, and pretty big amount dollar wise when it got closer to FDA approval. The current price made me choke a little. I still might jump, but I'll see how things are overall market wise.

 

[Jfrick11]

Novo’s stock is falling while its profits and projected growth tank.

It turns out orforglipron isn’t as effective as hoped. Combined with the fact Tirz is more effective and that they can’t stop the flood of grey market and compounded Sema, they are bleeding money. I won’t be shedding any tears if those greedy bastards go under.

The Creator of Ozempic Is in Terrible Trouble

Ozempic manufacturer Novo Nordisk slashed its sales forecast and saw its value plunge by nearly $100 billion.

futurism.com

I get the frustration with pharma.... Novo has made massive profits off drugs , and pricing/access issues are very real. People feel that.

But the leap from “they’re making a lot of money” to “hope they go under” is where it falls apart for me.

Big pharma isn’t just this one sided awful villain in a movie......it’s also the engine behind insanely expensive, high risk research. Most drugs fail. The ones that succeed fund the next wave. Without that system (flawed as it is), we don’t get:

GLP-1s in the first place

cancer therapies

antibiotics pipelines (already fragile)

etc, etc.

A more grounded take for me is :

Push for better regulation, pricing transparency, and access while s upporting innovation and accountability.

Be careful what you wish for.... The world would be totally different without innovation in medicine

 

[HereKittyKitty]

We don't want to see any of them "go down". As difficult as the business model is for patients/consumers, these companies are the source of the grey market. If they stop developing new products, we stop getting better and better options to research.

 

[wellhellothere]

Oh crap, I didn't even look at the date lol. It just popped up on my FB feed.

FB feed Dating yourself!

 

[AcadiaPeptides]

FB feed Dating yourself!

Wait. . . we aren't using Facebook anymore? (cries in 55 year old)

 

[Habibibi]

Do you want the weight loss drug that is less effective and causes more side effects? I think that is the question most people are asking themselves. EL has a lock on the market for the next couple of years. They are positioned well with Tirz, Reta and Eloralintide either alone or in combination with Tirz. Beyond 2 years, who knows. It is a gold rush and everyone wants to get in on the bonanza. Once a month convenience alternatives are coming. Tirz-like competitors that perform better are coming. Reta competitors are coming. Combinations that preserve muscle are coming.

We are in a weird market situation of a duopoly right now and EL is coming out ahead. That will change. I expect that the competition will drive down prices and doctors will have many choices that they can tailor to the patient's needs in the future. I strongly feel that in 5 years we will look back at this period and shake our heads in disbelief that we lived through this duopoly stranglehold on the market.

In the meantime, EL is milking it for everything they can get. The only thing that NN can do to compete is drop their price, and they seem reluctant to do that.

Duopoly is likely to be here to stay, because while the overall industry is "unconcentrated," the individual markets for specific diseases are often highly concentrated oligopolies. Try to do the exercise for your favorite class of drugs. Your insurance likely covers at most 3 brands. Generics don't count.

This is also valid for large swaths of the US economy itself.

 

[Grogu]

Duopoly is likely to be here to stay, because while the overall industry is "unconcentrated," the individual markets for specific diseases are often highly concentrated oligopolies. Try to do the exercise for your favorite class of drugs. Your insurance likely covers at most 3 brands. Generics don't count.

This is also valid for large swaths of the US economy itself.

My favorite class of drugs is glp-1 receptor agonists . My insurance doesn’t cover any of them .

 

[yeddie]

Lilly’s "terribly-named weight loss pill", orforglipron, received FDA approval on April 1 (no joke!). The brand name is Foundayo, which is less awful than I expected.

Will be interesting to see how it's received in the market, and what the pricing will end up being. I think the prices mentioned were somewhere in the range of the price of Zepbound for people not covered by insurance, so not great...

 

[RetCurious]

If you're interested in the history of the pharmaceutical industry and markets, in particular Novo Nordisk and E. Lilly this podcast is essential.

Novo Nordisk (Ozempic) | Acquired

Novo Nordisk's century-long journey to Ozempic and Wegovy. How a Danish diabetes drug became the biggest pharmaceutical blockbuster of the 2020s.

www.acquired.fm

 

[Rolltide61]

I hope orals are not the future. I would be lost if I wasn't jabbing myself a couple times a day.

 

[BigMcLargeHuge]

EL bought the process from Genentech, who developed the first synthetic insulin product which was manufactured using recombinant DNA inserted into e.coli and fermented.

I worked for Genentech (2007) when one of my coworkers was stealing HGH from the clinical production line and selling it at his brother’s bodybuilding store. At the time it was one of the largest bust of the sales of steroids.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2007/09...man-growth-hormone-sold-it-in-san-jose-store/

"In the two local cases, agents seized a total of 73 bottles of Human Growth Hormone; 79 vials of steroids, some crystal methamphetamine ...."

Well, that one way to shed some pounds.