Does Huberman know something?

[sfkid]

I'm sure he is very well connected but China will never be stopped. They banned steroids and widely available to those that want them.

 

[Chili777]

He's definitely trying to look like he knows something, that's certain. We'll see.

 

[Mr.Tired]

He's been on a tear about the grey markets and a coming crackdown for months now. It almost seems personal for whatever reason.

Huberman seems relatively open minded about most things, so I don't get why he is so negative about this unless he has some undisclosed financial interest.

 

[Calm Logic]

Is it me, or it is usually men/bros with these "last month for peptides" theories?

 

[Raptorrunner]

The gray he is talking about are the US resellers/websites and hawkers on social media.

He's right. Big pharma is gonna grease whatever wheels they need to in order to clamp down on those picking their pockets. They will do it under the guise of safety, but make no mistake, it's about dollars and shareholder return.

A local crossfit gym is selling 20mg of Reta for $350. Big pharma wants that money.

 

[Calm Logic]

They banned steroids and widely available to those that want them.

Right.

The only thing that has given me pause lately is Uther alleging that things are getting harder for him to source:

Supply going like hotcakes!

I'm trying to place my first order....thanks to this community! I see the vendors, price and supply. As soon as I email an order, it's "out of this, out of that" etc. Man, these supplies go fast. Do you split orders between who has what or wait until someone has fully supply? What's your technique?

glp1forum.com

How much of that is just typical vendor drama, I have no idea.

 

[sfkid]

Right.

The only thing that has given me pause lately is Uther alleging that things are getting harder for him to source:

Supply going like hotcakes!

I'm trying to place my first order....thanks to this community! I see the vendors, price and supply. As soon as I email an order, it's "out of this, out of that" etc. Man, these supplies go fast. Do you split orders between who has what or wait until someone has fully supply? What's your technique?

glp1forum.com

How much of that is just Uther-related, I have no idea.

Well, I got my freezer stocked for now.

If things start to get tight, I'll just buy a bigger freezer and stock up more untill this gets sorted out.

 

[Chili777]

Right.

The only thing that has given me pause lately is Uther alleging that things are getting harder for him to source:

Supply going like hotcakes!

I'm trying to place my first order....thanks to this community! I see the vendors, price and supply. As soon as I email an order, it's "out of this, out of that" etc. Man, these supplies go fast. Do you split orders between who has what or wait until someone has fully supply? What's your technique?

glp1forum.com

How much of that is just typical vendor drama, I have no idea.

He also may be experiencing the post-CNY hangover. Mine are only now getting back to normal. He also only takes minimum $800 orders, so who knows how that has impacted his suppliers.

 

[Calm Logic]

Another scenario:

The only thing that might actually break the whole system is the Chinese government deciding to seriously crack down on the whole industry. There is already a new locally designed, owned and released GLP in china, and the major manufacturers are already aggressively price cutting in china in response to this and maybe the black market? The Chinese government is known to tolerate piracy and intellectual property theft when it suits them, and crack down hard when it no longer suits them and could interfere with potentially much more profitable legit industries. I see this as inevitable with peptides, the only question being when not if.

All it will take is a few publicised severe health problems or deaths resulting from peptides in China that could force the government to act to shut them down. And there are so many people there that this is going to happen sooner or later. This is separate to the local economic issues of the peptide pirates competing with the legit local industries , and any international diplomatic or political pressure from the west deriving from their interference in the profitability of the big drug companies.

I do not think they care if anyone in the west gets hurt by peptides, but I do think they will care if Chinese people in China are. They hung the people responsible for putting melamine in baby milk powder.

Supply will not necessarily be abolished if this happens but it will get a lot harder and more expensive.

 

[Calm Logic]

He also may be experiencing the post-CNY hangover. Mine are only now getting back to normal.

 

[Chili777]

My understanding is that retail sales of peptides is already technically illegal in China. So are performance enhancing drugs like oils and BPC-157, etc. While domestic sales are restricted, Chinese peptide manufacturers produce and export products labeled RUO, for foreign markets. These exports aren't illegal under Chinese law as long as they are not marketed for human consumption domestically. GLPs are also highly regulated and will be even more regulated now that they have their own home designed GLP. Unless they make changes to the current law, which is possible, I don't see the grey market changing.

 

[Mr. Blonde]

Fear mongering. I've said this before but they banned steroids under Reagan (1980s). They are easier to get now more than ever.

Peptides will be the same way. That's the whole point of a black market, it gives the middle finger of freedom to crack downs.

 

[Calm Logic]

Fear mongering. I've said this before but they banned steroids under Reagan (1980s). They are easier to get now more than ever.

I like the steroid metaphor but, on the other hand, GLPs are the big money right now for Big Pharma, in both China and the US. That was never the case with steroids.

On the positive side, it's easier to moonlight peptide production than steroid production:

Steroid labs are often "dedicated" facilities—if you raid a pill-pressing or oil-vialing operation, it’s clearly for one purpose.

The Peptide Advantage: The high-end equipment used to make grey-market peptides (HPLC for purification and Lyophilizers for freeze-drying) is the exact same equipment used by legitimate cosmetic, skincare, and research chemical companies.

In China, thousands of labs can "hide in plain sight" by producing legitimate collagen peptides for the beauty industry by day and "research" GLPs by night.

 

[Calm Logic]

Unless they make changes to the current law, which is possible, I don't see the grey market changing.

I don't know what effect it will have, but some new Chinese drug laws (totaling 89 articles) start May 15th.

OTOH, there are disadvantages to hoarding too much if prices continue to go down (which has always been the case). If prices do ever go up, we know it's hoarding time (and the golden opportunities may be over).

 

[CNCCurrency]

Fear mongering. I've said this before but they banned steroids under Reagan (1980s). They are easier to get now more than ever.

Peptides will be the same way. That's the whole point of a black market, it gives the middle finger of freedom to crack downs.

 

[lessthanhalf]

I know it is just a summary but it is not exactly a crystal clear description of the new laws. - from the above post. It would be interesting to see what the new laws really are, or how they might be used in practice. China is known for vague laws that require insider party approval to avoid running afoul of the law/party.

"The modified rules also tighten the management of drug manufacturing. Management requirements for the production and sale of traditional Chinese medicine decoction pieces and granules are clarified.

In the area of distribution and use, these regulations improve oversight of online drug sales and place greater responsibility on third-party e-commerce platform operators."

Although packaging peptides into vials is not hard, just requiring a few or a few tens of thousands worth of equipment, manufacturing them is hard, and rules changing how those companies can operate and how they sell or who they can sell to could destroy availability. A truly black market peptide manufacturing facility that succeeds in hiding from the government in china that requires millions in gear is a much more difficult proposition.

 

[Calm Logic]

Although packaging peptides into vials is not hard, just requiring a few or a few tens of thousands worth of equipment, manufacturing them is hard, and rules changing how those companies can operate and how they sell or who they can sell to could destroy availability. A truly black market peptide manufacturing facility that succeeds in hiding from the government in china that requires millions in gear is a much more difficult proposition.

Speaking of the small players: Ever since GYC disappeared for a little while in June due to an "inspection," I've thought the China side would be the bigger factor regarding enforcement. Then SSA and SRY disappeared, and then it really seemed that the Chinese government has all the cards.

 

[anhydrous]

In some ways they are more capitalist than we are. If there is a buck to be made they are going to try. I'm surprised no one has yet mentioned the astonishing level of corruption involved. In many places of the world it is business as usual to pay someone to look the other way or worst case scenario cut them in.

 

[d0se1]

The black/gray market has been around since the beginning of time. You may just have to go further down the rabbit hole to find it. I wouldn't worry too much about it. Just stock up when you can afford it.

 

[UpDownLeftRightAS*]

Life will go on, as it always seems to. New compounds will continue to be developed sparking a market as well. Now that Sema/GLP1 is going for $10-15 in some (patent expired) markets I would expect that to reach rock bottom pricing or simply no longer be worth adding to the long lists of products the gray market/ china vendors have. The "product list" will always be there....